Other Expert Analyses

Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr. is a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud. He is a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan. 

On May 6, 2025, Dr. Mebane shared an updated version of a working report titled "eforensics Analysis of Three Pennsylvania Counties in the 2024 Presidential Election" with the Election Truth Alliance (ETA) and provided our team with written permission to share it on our website. The working report analyzes the same three counties in Pennsylvania previously examined by the ETA using different methods of analysis. 

This page contains three key sections:

1. "Walter R. Mebane, Jr & eforensics Model" (May 7, 2025) by the ETA Team. Provides a brief overview of Dr. Mebane's key writings on election forensics, as well as a plain-language characterization of his eforensics model. 
2. High-Level Summary of Dr. Mebane's working report drafted by the ETA team. It is informed by the working report, as well as conversations and written exchanges with Dr. Mebane. It is intended to help communicate his high-level findings to a broader audience. 
3. "eforensics Analysis of Three Pennsylvania Counties in the 2024 Presidential Election"  (May 6, 2025) by Walter R. Mebane J.r, a working report analyzing Philadelphia, Allegheny, and Erie county results from the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
   

High-Level Summary 

of 'Three Pennsylvania Counties' Working Paper by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr

• Dr. Mebane's analysis using the 'eforensics' method identifies approximately 29,000 potentially fraudulent or distorted votes across three Pennsylvania counties (Philadelphia, Allegheny, and Erie). This estimate represents approximately 24% of the statewide margin of victory in Pennsylvania. 
• There are 64 other counties in Pennsylvania that Professor Mebane and the Election Truth Alliance have not yet analyzed. 
• Across the three counties, these concerns appear predominantly linked to election-day voting. 
• Dr. Mebane's analysis suggests that Philadelphia County appears to demonstrate the most concerning indicators among the three counties analyzed.